Director, Lead Demand Data Science

Description

Director Lead Demand Data Scientist is a team lead role. Primary role and mission is to:

• Design statistical forecast strategy to maximize mix accuracy (WFA), plan level accuracy (bias), stability & explainability in forecasts for a complex multi brand, multi-channel, multi category prestige beauty business
• Hire & lead a team to build, deploy & optimize AI/machine learning forecasting models for customer order & consumer point of sale forecasts to maximize mix accuracy, plan level & completeness, stability & explainability, across in-line, new product and promotional business segments, across execution, operating & strategic horizons
• Build this capability for an extremely complex global prestige beauty business spanning over a dozen brands, hundreds of markets, multiple channels across a vast product portfolio
• Accountable for forecast accuracy, attainment & stability for key business segments (basic in-line business, new product launches, major categories & total unit plan level)
• Stay abreast of latest developments in AI/ML demand forecasting and integrate into platform. Foster a culture of excellence & innovation in the team thru mentorship & guidance

Key Responsibilities:

• Design a coherent & differentiated or segmented statistical forecasting strategy that accounts for commercial nuances and business outcomes (global supply, market deployment, strategic planning, volatile business segments)
• Hire, develop & lead a team of data scientists to build, deploy & optimize AI/machine learning forecasting models for customer order & consumer point of sale forecasts to maximize mix accuracy, plan level & completeness, stability & explainability, across in-line, new product and promotional business segments, across execution, operating & strategic horizons for all brands, markets & categories
• Build at scale to efficiently support an extremely complex global prestige beauty business spanning over a dozen brands, hundreds of markets, multiple channels across a vast multi-category product portfolio
• Develop an understanding of regional & global business dynamics to inform & optimize modeling choices include optimal forecast strategies for regions, brands & functions (supply, strategic planning, materials)

Capabilities:

• Strong organizational skills, with ability to successfully prioritize and manage multiple accountabilities simultaneously

• Ability to work within and across multiple functional teams, collaborating with Planning, GIS / IT, Supply Chain and Commercial stakeholders

• Experience working with external partners/vendors to integrate model and architecture enhancements

• Experience leading and developing technical talent

• Strong written and oral communication skills - able to clearly communicate complex analyses to senior stakeholders

• Strong attention to detail - ability to accurately manage, update, maintain large datasets

• Strong technical knowledge - understanding of setting up, using, maintaining statistical forecasting models / tools

• Highly analytical - able to conduct complex statistical analysis providing high quality / accurate output

Exceptional complex problem-solving abilities

Qualifications:

• Education: Bachelor's degree or higher in Engineering, Computer Science, Statistics, Machine Learning, Operations Research or related field. Master's or PhD desired

• Direct experience: Minimum 10 years of related experience in Operations Consulting or Data Science role related to statistical demand forecasting

• Experience designing and implementing a coherent & differentiated or segmented statistical forecasting strategy that accounts for commercial nuances and business outcomes (global supply, market deployment, strategic planning, volatile business segments)

• Experience leading and mentoring a team of data scientists building machine learning/AI demand forecast models to execute forecast strategy

• Knowledge of, and experience with statistical forecasting techniques (classical time series methods) & machine learning models (GLM, kernel machines, neural networks - CNNs, RNNs, tree models), hyperparameter & loss function tuning, stability, accuracy, attainment, granularity tradeoff considerations in forecast model performance

• Experience with pre and post processing of time series such as outlier detection & treatment, history imputation, clustering & decomposition

• Knowledge of, and hands-on experience building demand forecasting models with statistical modeling packages at scale (Python, R), database languages (different SQL flavors), cloud platforms (Azure, AWS, GCP), ML platforms (Nixtla, TensorFlow, Pytorch, sklearn) parallelized & distributed computing (Databricks). Gen AI experience bonus

• Understanding of OOP concepts & design patterns, hands on experience with high performance production grade python code

• Experience with ML Ops tools & practices for deployment of ML models at scale

• Knowledge of supply chain and demand management challenges & principles

• Experience working with large data sets, exploratory data analysis & advanced data visualization

• Experience dealing with tight operating deadlines & ambiguity

• Knowledge of beauty industry and global / regional market trends, supply chain is preferred

U.S. Corporate/Office Exempt Roles

The anticipated base salary range for this position is $120,550 - $208,200. Exact salary depends on several factors such as experience, skills, education, and budget. Salary range may vary based on geographic location. In addition to base salary, this position is eligible for participation in a highly competitive bonus program with possibility for overachievement based on performance and company results.

In addition, The Estée Lauder Companies offers a variety of benefits to eligible employees, including health insurance coverage, wellness and family support programs, life and disability insurance, retirement savings plans, paid leave programs, education-related programs, paid holidays and vacation time, and many others. Many of these benefits are subsidized or fully paid for by the company